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COMMENT
Wales may just have done the All Blacks a favour with their spirited performance last weekend.
I wouldn't necessarily say the All Blacks looked complacent, but if they were not at their sharpest mentally it was an ideal wake-up call ahead of tonight's showdown with the Springboks.
Overall, I thought it was a reasonable result against Wales, but how they got there left some big question marks.
The major areas of concern were some of the first-up defence, which was distinctly ordinary, and some of the work at ruck time.
Too often our body positions were too high, we did not have the numbers there and when they did arrive, they were too late.
As I watched Wales come back from 28-10 down in the latter stages of the second half, it brought to mind our World Cup semifinal loss to France in 1999.
This was obviously at an earlier stage of the tournament, and not as critical a game, and against lesser opponents, but what teams must guard against at the knockout stage is going off the boil during a match.
If they lose focus and allow the opposition to dictate terms it can be desperately difficult to get back into the contest. Time tends to go faster when you're trying to play catch-up.
But it's better for the All Blacks to get a rude awakening in pool play than from now on and, hopefully, whatever wrinkles were there have been ironed out.
They will need to be against a South African team who are looking pretty good. You couldn't always say that about them in the last couple of years, but there are encouraging signs for Springbok fans.
Disregard what happened in the Tri-Nations, when the All Blacks belted them in Durban and won again, but after a much harder scrap, in Dunedin. In the Tri-Nations you get a second chance, but not at the World Cup.
These teams have been together through several games and several weeks now. South Africa will be a far tougher proposition than they were a few weeks ago. They have played a controlled brand of rugby and they've got a new lease of life, especially after giving England a decent contest, and putting 60 points on Samoa last weekend.
Their veteran halfback, Joost van der Westhuizen, is playing like he was five years ago, they've got a new first five-eighth in Derick Hougaard who looks good, they have a robust front row, a decent lineout, good loose forwards. What the All Blacks must do is to get control up front. It doesn't matter how gifted the outside backs are, if the forwards haven't got at least parity in the set pieces, we have got problems.
Richie McCaw became too caught up in the tight stuff against Wales. He was stuck at the bottom of the ruck more than once when he should have been a bit wider. That's not his job and, as a whole, you could say the pack was a bit loose.
A key element for the pack will be to bash the Springboks - in the strictly legal sense - and look to get them on the back foot.
The South African backs are pretty useful, but if they're retreating, their chances of making an impact are significantly reduced.
I'm reasonably confident the All Blacks can win. They have the ability to step up, and I'd like to think they will.
Their mindset must be different from the pool games. They can't muck around, they must make every move count. If they do I think they will get the right result.
My tips for the other quarter-finals? Australia, England and Ireland to provide the big surprise.
The Scots were terrible against Fiji last weekend. If Fiji had been even half fit they would have won it.
Scotland should never have made the last eight and the Wallabies will blow them away.
Ditto England, for all Wales' wholehearted effort last weekend.
I really hope Ireland tip the French out. Ireland's lineout is amazing, with Paul O'Connell and Malcolm O'Kelly the key men, and they play with courage and guts.
France are an enigma. They've been impressive so far, but Ireland have shown they have the qualities to make the last four for the first time.
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