By Corey Pronman and The Athletic Staff
Mar 15, 2023
NHL teams are circling May 8 on their calendars. That’s when the league will hold the NHL Draft Lottery, giving us an answer for which team will win the top spot and the chance to land the consensus No. 1 pick, Connor Bedard.
The draft lottery, introduced in 1995 as a way to avoid teams tanking to secure the top pick in the following draft, has been modified several times but the basic principles have remained.
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Teams that fail to qualify for the postseason (or clubs that acquire a non-playoff team’s first-round pick) are entered into the draft lottery. A weighted system is used to determine the top 16 picks in the draft. Prior to the 2021 season, the top three spots in the draft were determined by the lottery. Now, it is just the top two spots. Additionally, teams can now only move up 10 spots in the order, meaning only the 11 clubs with the worst record at the end of the season (or a team that owns one of their first-round picks) are eligible to move up to the No. 1 spot. Under the most recent changes, the team with the worst record cannot draft lower than No. 3.
Have questions on the draft lottery, Bedard and the odds for the No. 1 pick? The Athletic has you covered:
Who is Connor Bedard?
Bedard is a potential franchise-changing No. 1 prospect. His skill and shot are legit game-breaking attributes.
Bedard has clearly been the best player in the WHL this season. He had one of the best individual performances ever in the most recent world juniors, being named MVP of the tournament. He was a top player for Canada’s U18 and U20 teams during his 16-year-old season while scoring 100 points in the WHL that same season. Bedard was one of the best players at the 2021 U18 World Championships as a 15-year-old.
His ability to beat defenders one-on-one is among the best I’ve ever seen by a 17-year-old, and the pace at which he displays that elite skill is going to allow him to execute those types of skilled plays in the NHL. Additionally, his wrist shot is a top-tier NHL weapon from anywhere in the offensive zone, making him a projected nightmare for NHL coaches to stop on the power play. — Pronman
GO DEEPERWelcome to the 'Connor show': Two days alongside the buzz and brilliance of Connor BedardWhich team could he make an immediate impact on?
I don’t think there’s any difference in what team he ends up on. He would clearly be the most talented player on the Blue Jackets, Sharks or Blackhawks — the top three teams in the draft lottery odds.
Bedard is a special offensive player. He has exceptional puck skills and goal-scoring ability. He projects to be one of the most skilled forwards in the league. He combines that skill with strong skating ability and a high compete level, although he’s not the biggest. He should be an impact forward and could be among the league’s leading scorers on an annual basis. — Pronman
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What are the NHL Draft Lottery odds for winning the top pick?
* Odds are for games played through March 14 according to Tankathon.
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 25.5 percent
- San Jose Sharks: 13.5 percent
- Chicago Blackhawks: 11.5 percent
- Anaheim Ducks: 9.5 percent
- Philadelphia Flyers: 8.5 percent
- Montreal Canadiens: 7.5 percent
- Arizona Coyotes: 6.5 percent
- Vancouver Canucks: 6.0 percent
- St. Louis Blues: 5.0 percent
- Detroit Red Wings: 3.5 percent
- Washington Capitals: 3.0 percent
When is the NHL Draft?
The 2023 NHL Draft will take place on June 28 and 29 in Nashville.
Who won last year’s draft lottery?
The Canadiens won the 2022 draft lottery, with the Devils (No. 2 pick) and the Coyotes (No. 3 pick) rounding out the top three. Montreal entered the lottery with the best odds of winning at 18.5 percent, followed by Arizona at 13.5 percent and Seattle at 11.5 percent.
It marked the sixth time in franchise history that the Canadiens had the No. 1 draft pick, which they used to select forward Juraj Slafkovsky.
Required reading
- 2023 NHL Draft prospects: Bedard No. 1 on Corey Pronman’s ranking, Fantilli and Michkov next
- Canucks mailbag, part 1: How would drafting Connor Bedard change Vancouver’s plans?
- Stanley Cup contender checklist: What is each non-playoff team missing?
- NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings
(Photo: Anne-Marie Sorvin / USA Today)
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